Shareholders might have noticed that Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to US$145 in the past week. Toll Brothers reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$2.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.97, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Toll Brothers' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$11.0b in 2027. This reflects a satisfactory 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.1% to US$14.02. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.15 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$171, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Toll Brothers analyst has a price target of US$195 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$122. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Toll Brothers' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 4.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Toll Brothers.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$171, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toll Brothers going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.