Third Avenue’s Fine favors “buying gray clouds” to build resilient portfolios, podcast says

Affiliated Managers Group

Affiliated Managers Group

AMG

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  • Third Avenue Management portfolio manager Matthew Fine said the firm is positioning for dislocated markets by emphasizing “buying gray clouds and selling sunshine” in a long-horizon, deep-value approach.
  • Fine said Third Avenue’s process starts with a credit-style focus on balance sheets, prioritizing downside protection and financial durability before upside.
  • He cited European banks as a key example, pointing to Bank of Ireland bought at about 40% of book value with a 5% ROE and about a 12% owner’s yield at entry, later improving to mid-to-high-teens ROE as conditions normalized.
  • Fine highlighted copper as an attractive commodity on structurally constrained supply, noting new greenfield mines typically take about 15 years to permit and bring into production.
  • He flagged elevated U.S. equity valuations as a risk, arguing forward return base rates look weak from current levels.


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