There's been a notable change in appetite for Tigo Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:TYGO) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 14% to US$4.35. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.2% short of analyst estimates at US$25m, although statutory losses were somewhat better. The per-share loss was US$0.02, 27% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tigo Energy's four analysts is for revenues of US$131.9m in 2026. This would reflect a substantial 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 10.0% to US$0.04 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$132.7m and losses of US$0.12 per share in 2026. While there's been no material change to the revenue estimates, there's been a pretty clear upgrade to earnings estimates, with the analysts expecting a per-share profit compared to previous expectations of a loss. So it seems like the latest results have led to a significant increase in sentiment for Tigo Energy.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 12% to US$6.85. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Tigo Energy analyst has a price target of US$8.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Tigo Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Tigo Energy is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 28% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 22% annual decline over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% per year. Not only are Tigo Energy's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts now expect Tigo Energy to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Tigo Energy going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.