Why TMC the metals is back on investors’ radar

TMC the metals (NasdaqGS:TMC) is drawing fresh attention after reporting progress on U.S. seabed mining permits and advancing its Allseas offshore collection system, alongside plans for a potential U.S. processing and refining hub.

Recent permitting updates and the planned Q2 2026 earnings release come as TMC the metals trades at US$4.41, with a 7-day share price return of 7.04% but a year-to-date share price decline of 34.96%. Over the same period, the 3-year total shareholder return is a very large multiple of the initial investment, while the 1-year total shareholder return is down 18.48%. Taken together, these figures indicate that shorter-term momentum has faded compared with earlier gains.

If you are watching how resource transition stories are being priced, it can also be useful to scan other miners through the 28 best rare earth metal stocks.

After a steep year to date pullback and a very large 3 year total return, TMC the metals sits at US$4.41 with mixed momentum. Does that backdrop still leave more upside potential than downside risk for new buyers as valuation comes into focus next?

Most Popular Narrative: 60.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative puts fair value for TMC the metals at $11.20, well above the last close at $4.41. This is presented as a very optimistic long term outlook.

The pre feasibility study and initial assessment outline a large resource with an estimated combined NPV of US$23.6b, targeted steady state revenue of about US$600 per dry ton and an EBITDA margin per ton of roughly 43%. If the company moves closer to these project economics while remaining in the first quartile of the cost curve, that cost position could support resilient margins and long term EBITDA and earnings power.

Want to see what underpins that gap between price and fair value for TMC the metals? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue build out and sizeable margins, then layers a rich future earnings multiple on top. Curious how those assumptions combine into an $11.20 fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $11.20 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the TMC the metals narrative still leans heavily on securing a NOAA Commercial Recovery Permit and on managing cash burn without heavier than expected shareholder dilution.

Next Steps

Mixed signals on TMC the metals so far. If you want to move quickly and shape your own view, start by weighing the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond TMC the metals?

If TMC the metals has caught your attention, do not stop there. Cast a wider net so you can compare different opportunities side by side with confidence.

• Target rock solid balance sheets by checking companies in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (49 results).
• Hunt for potential mispricing by scanning the screener containing 18 high quality undiscovered gems before the crowd catches on.
• Prioritise resilience by reviewing companies in the 88 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.