• In late June 2026, Joby Aviation and Toyota Motor Corporation formed a majority Toyota-owned joint venture, Joby Toyota Aero Manufacturing Preparation Company, granting it exclusive rights to manufacture Joby’s S4 Series eVTOL aircraft and combining Joby’s aircraft technology with Toyota’s production expertise.
• The alliance deepens Toyota’s role from large shareholder to manufacturing partner, tying further US$250.00 million in planned investment to clear certification and funding milestones that shape how Joby scales commercial production.
• We’ll now examine how Toyota’s majority-controlled manufacturing joint venture could influence Joby’s investment narrative built around FAA certification and commercialization.

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Joby Aviation Investment Narrative Recap

To own Joby today, you need to believe that FAA type certification and a credible path to commercial air taxi operations can eventually justify heavy ongoing losses and the current valuation. The Toyota joint venture squarely targets scale manufacturing, but it does not remove the immediate execution risk around certification and early operations, which remains the key near term catalyst and the biggest risk to the business.

The most relevant prior announcement is Joby’s March 2026 update that it had begun flight testing its first FAA conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization. That step moved Joby into for credit testing, and Toyota’s majority controlled manufacturing JV now sits alongside this process as the intended bridge from certified prototype to scaled production, tying additional US$250.00 million of Toyota funding to how smoothly that transition unfolds.

Yet, against this backdrop, investors should still be alert to the risk that any slip in FAA timing or test results could...

Joby Aviation’s narrative projects $611.2 million revenue and $30.0 million earnings by 2029. This requires 98.9% yearly revenue growth and a $987.4 million earnings increase from -$957.4 million today.

Uncover how Joby Aviation's forecasts yield a $11.12 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most bearish analysts were already modeling about 141.5% annual revenue growth and US$20.9 million earnings by 2029, yet they still saw certification and ultra high volume manufacturing with Toyota as fragile assumptions that could change meaningfully after this latest joint venture news.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Joby Aviation - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Joby Aviation research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Joby Aviation research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Joby Aviation's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.