Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.3% to US$61.29 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. It was a moderately negative result overall - revenue fell 9.8% short of analyst estimates at US$120m, although at least statutory losses were marginally smaller than expected, at US$3.12 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the consensus from Traeger's seven analysts is for revenues of US$446.4m in 2026, which would reflect a discernible 7.9% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 79% to US$8.50. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$471.3m and US$8.03 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to to its losses per share forecasts.

The average price target lifted 36% to US$62.33, clearly signalling that the weaker revenue and EPS outlook are not expected to weigh on the stock over the longer term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Traeger, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$77.00 and the most bearish at US$43.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Traeger's past performance and to peers in the same industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 7.7% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 15% decline in revenue until the end of 2026. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.0% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Traeger is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Traeger going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.