“You gotta win the midterms, ’cause, if we don’t win the midterms… they’ll find a reason to impeach me.” President Donald Trump said to congressional Republicans in January.

Eight months before the vote, prediction market traders agree.

On Kalshi, a contract on whether Trump will be impeached before Jan. 1, 2028 trades at 72%, with $1.76 million in volume. The nearer-term numbers are far lower: 4% before June 2026 and 13% before Jan. 1, 2027.

A separate contract on impeachment and removal from office sits at 21.1%.

How It Could Happen

Kalshi’s House control market gives Democrats an 84% chance of winning the chamber in November. Republicans hold a 218-214 majority, so Democrats need to flip just four seats. Eighteen of the last 20 midterms have seen the president’s party lose House seats.

Impeachment requires only a simple majority in the House. Conviction requires two-thirds of the Senate, a much higher bar that no president has ever cleared.

House Speaker Mike Johnson warned at a Turning Point USA event in December that a Democratic House would impeach Trump and “create absolute chaos.”

A CNN poll from early March found nearly 60% disapproved of the war in Iran, and a Fox News poll put Trump’s economic disapproval at 61%. Brent crude has jumped past $100 a barrel since the strikes began, and gas prices have crossed $3.70 and could rise higher.

Billionaire Ray Dalio is warning that the Strait of Hormuz could become America’s ‘final battle’

It’s Happened Before

Trump was impeached twice during his first term. The first came in December 2019, when the House charged him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress over alleged efforts to pressure Ukraine into investigating Joe Biden’s son.

The second came in January 2021, one week after the Capitol riot, making him the only president impeached twice.

The Senate acquitted him both times.

Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 for perjury and obstruction. The S&P 500 rose 23% from the start of Congress’ inquiry through impeachment and gained another 19% in the following 12 months.

Richard Nixon resigned before a formal vote. Stocks fell more than 20% during Watergate, though the economy was already in recession. The pattern from both: markets tracked the economy, not the hearings.

Does Impeachment Actually Work?

History suggests Democrats should be careful what they wish for.

Clinton’s approval hit 73% during his Senate trial.

Trump’s own numbers ticked up during both first-term impeachments, and Republicans used the proceedings to rally donors heading into 2020.

Impeachment without conviction has a track record of helping the president it targets.

But that calculus changes if Democrats take the Senate as well as the House.

Kalshi has that race as a coin flip, with the Democrats having exactly 50% chance of taking the Senate.

Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds majority, meaning Republican crossover would be needed, but it moves from impossible to merely unlikely.

The impeachment and removal contract at 21.1% reflects that math.

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