Trump Tariffs Have Been Outlawed, But Crypto Punters Don't See Clear Path To Refunds

Trump Tariffs Have Been Outlawed, But Crypto Punters Don't See Clear Path To Refunds — Here's Why

Cryptocurrency bettors see only a small chance that the Trump administration will be forced to refund U.S. importers, even though the Supreme Court struck down the emergency-law tariffs.

Polymarket Crowd Not Convinced Yet

Polymarket odds tumbled to 18% as of this writing, down from 39% on Friday.

Just over $145,000 has been wagered on the outcome. It will resolve to "Yes" if previously collected tariffs are repaid in any form, such as direct payments, credits, or offsets from U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury, by June 30.

Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.

Tariff War Heats Up

The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 on Friday that the Trump administration improperly used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, reaffirming Congress’s constitutional authority over taxes and trade policy.

But even as the refund issue lingers, Trump has tried to circumvent the court’s limits by pointing to other legal tools, including Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows for a temporary global tariff that could run up to 150 days. He also said his administration would spend the next few months setting new tariff schedules he views as legally defensible.

Additionally, market commentator The Kobeissi Letter cited the Supreme Court’s ruling that stated President Donald Trump “must point to clear congressional authorization” to impose tariffs. This means that Congress can still enact legislation to legitimize these taxes.

“The base case assumption remains that tariffs will not be entirely refunded,” The Kobeissi Letter added.

Trade lawyers believe importers will eventually get refunds, but it won’t happen fast. TD Securities estimated a 12-18 month timeline before companies see the money.

Meanwhile, Trump said he will raise the global tariff rate to 15% from 10% in response to the ruling, adding that the change takes effect immediately.

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock/ Jack_the_sparow

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