AI related trade is surging, tariffs are reshaping supply chains, and competition for critical minerals is tightening. These shifts are already filtering through to company earnings risks and opportunities, especially for businesses plugged into semiconductors, clean tech inputs, or global logistics. This article highlights three stocks exposed to these trade and AI catalysts, with two that may stand to benefit from the current setup and one that could face tougher conditions as trade barriers rise and supply lines reroute. You can use these cases as a framework for thinking about how your portfolio is positioned against these global shifts.

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TWSE:2330)

Overview: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a global contract chipmaker that designs, manufactures, packages, and tests advanced integrated circuits used in AI hardware, high performance computing, smartphones, cars, and consumer electronics for leading tech companies worldwide.

Operations: The company generates all of its NT$4,103,904.08m revenue from its Foundry segment, with customers spread across the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan, EMEA, and other regions.

Market Cap: NT$59,774.11b

Investors looking at AI trade catalysts may consider how central TSMC is to the surge in AI related chips, especially as AI goods have recently been expanding much faster than the rest of global trade and customers look for more resilient supply chains. The stock currently combines high margins, strong recent earnings growth and large AI related partnerships with Sony, Cadence and others, yet still trades on a P/E below many peers. This valuation difference suggests the market may not fully reflect its role as critical digital infrastructure. On the other hand, there is real risk from tariff policies, geographic concentration in Taiwan and signs of insider selling. How these strengths and pressures balance is where the key considerations for investors start to emerge.

TSMC’s role as AI’s foundry backbone, its high margins, and a P/E below many peers raise a clear question for investors. Get the full story with the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs (1 is major!)

BHP Group (ASX:BHP)

Overview: BHP Group is a global resources company that mines and sells copper, iron ore, coal, nickel, potash and other metals and minerals used in steelmaking, clean energy, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure, while also providing related logistics, marketing, and support services from its base in Australia to customers worldwide.

Operations: BHP generates the bulk of its revenue from Copper at US$25.57b and Iron Ore at US$23.46b, with Coal contributing US$4.67b and group and unallocated items of US$0.28b.

Market Cap: A$305.25b

If you are looking for leverage to AI hardware, electrification and the global push for supply chain resilience, BHP sits at the heart of that story through its copper, nickel and potash portfolio, supported by long life, low cost assets and a high current ROE near 23.4%. At the same time, earnings have declined in recent years, margins have softened, and the stock trades on a higher P/E than many metals and mining peers, so investors are paying a premium while still facing China exposure, project execution issues such as Jansen potash, and ESG and regulatory pressure. How those powerful demand tailwinds stack up against valuation, concentration in iron ore and growing policy risks is where the investment debate truly begins.

BHP’s premium P/E and high 23.4% ROE suggest the copper and potash story might be only half told, especially with China, Jansen and ESG risk in the mix. Pressure test the full picture with the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA)

Overview: Alibaba Group Holding is a large Chinese technology company that runs e commerce platforms like Taobao and Tmall, global marketplaces such as AliExpress and Lazada, a major cloud computing business, and a range of digital services from logistics and maps to groceries and healthcare.

Operations: Alibaba generates most of its CN¥1.02t revenue from its Alibaba China E commerce Group at CN¥554.22b, supported by All Others at CN¥254.37b, Cloud Intelligence Group at CN¥158.13b and Alibaba International Digital Commerce at CN¥144.17b, with inter segment eliminations of CN¥89.56b.

Market Cap: US$274.16b

Alibaba sits at the intersection of AI, cloud and cross border e commerce, yet faces a tougher backdrop as global trade fragments, tariffs rise and buyers shift sourcing away from China. Heavy AI and cloud spending, including a planned RMB 380b over three years and an RMB 18.8b free cash outflow in a recent quarter, has already pressured margins, while earnings fell 18.2% in the past year and ROE sits in single digits. At the same time, the stock trades below some value estimates and analyst targets and is tied to rapid AI cloud revenue growth and domestic chip efforts that could be sensitive to export controls and regulation. As a result, the gap between potential and execution risk is unusually wide.

Alibaba’s heavy AI and cloud spending, single digit ROE and recent 18.2% earnings fall suggest something in the story is stalling. See how the analyst forecasts for Alibaba Group Holding could reshape expectations before the next twist hits.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.