UBP lifts conviction on corporate high yield, hybrid AT1s as fixed income outlook improves in H2 2026

  • Union Bancaire Privee’s July 2026 House View flagged a regime shift as a US-Iran deal eased the energy shock, pushing investors toward higher selectivity.
  • Kept a measured risk stance on an earnings-led equity market; said 2026 profit estimates almost doubled, driven by AI investment.
  • Raised conviction in corporate high yield and hybrid AT1s to boost carry; aimed to keep overall interest-rate sensitivity broadly neutral.
  • Rotated equities away from defense and China toward Europe and broader emerging markets; cited improving fundamentals and easing energy costs.
  • Trimmed gold allocation on fewer near-term catalysts amid a stronger US dollar and slower rate cuts; retained gold’s long-term diversification role.


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