UBP says oil surge drives rotation into value, defensive stocks as semis slide

  • Union Bancaire Privee flagged a market rotation as softer US inflation cooled rate-hike expectations, while renewed Middle East hostilities lifted oil.
  • Global equities fell 1.6% last week; technology slid 4.7% as semiconductors dropped 8.1%, pushing the SOX 20.3% below its June high.
  • Energy gained 4.5% as Brent jumped 15.9% to USD 88/barrel, supporting value and defensive positioning.
  • US CPI fell 0.4% m/m; core was flat, while the 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.5%-4.6% and the dollar stayed range-bound.
  • Focus shifts to an ECB hold at 2.25% and US megacap earnings, with AI capex returns in focus following a new Chinese open-weight model.


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