Udemy (UDMY) Q1 Loss Reverses Profit Trend And Tests Bullish Margin Narratives
Udemy UDMY | 0.00 |
Udemy (UDMY) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$191.4 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.09, as net income excluding extra items came in at a loss of US$12.6 million. This framed a quarter where top line scale met continued pressure on the bottom line. Over recent quarters, revenue has moved from US$200.3 million in Q1 2025 to US$193.9 million in Q4 2025 and US$191.4 million in Q1 2026. Basic EPS has ranged from a profit of US$0.04 in Q2 2025 to losses of US$0.07 in Q4 2024 and US$0.09 in the latest quarter, setting up a story where investors are watching whether improving longer term loss trends can translate into cleaner margins from here.
See our full analysis for Udemy.With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up with the widely followed narratives around Udemy's growth potential, risk profile and path toward more resilient margins.
Losses Narrow Over 12 Months, But Q1 Slips Back
- On a trailing twelve month basis, Udemy reported a net loss of US$7.0 million and basic EPS of US$0.05 loss, compared with a quarterly Q1 2026 net loss of US$12.6 million and basic EPS loss of US$0.09. This means the single quarter is weaker than the full year trend.
- Bulls argue that multi year loss reduction of 17.1% per year and a forecast earnings growth rate of 87.39% per year set Udemy up for a cleaner profit story. However, the Q1 2026 loss that is larger than the trailing twelve month loss shows that the path described by bullish expectations is not a straight line and still depends on future improvement rather than current profitability.
- Supporters point to the trailing revenue base of US$781.0 million and the lower trailing loss of US$7.0 million as evidence that earnings have already moved closer to break even over time.
- At the same time, the swing from a Q2 2025 profit of US$6.3 million back to a Q1 2026 loss of US$12.6 million illustrates why the bullish view still carries execution risk around stabilising margins.
Bulls leaning on those improving loss trends may want the full upside and downside case in one place. It can be useful to read the detailed optimistic storyline alongside the hard numbers in this filing.🐂 Udemy Bull Case
Revenue Growth Trails Market Benchmarks
- Revenue growth is forecast at 3.9% per year compared with a US market benchmark of 11.6% per year, and quarterly revenue has sat in a tight band between US$191.4 million and US$200.3 million across the last six reported quarters. This keeps Udemy behind the broader growth pace described in the data.
- Bears highlight that slower forecast revenue growth and reliance on subscription shifts could cap earnings power, and the flat revenue range between Q4 2024 at US$199.9 million and Q1 2026 at US$191.4 million does not yet contradict that concern.
- The Consumer segment is expected in the narrative to see revenue fall about 8% to 9% year over year for 2025 as Udemy pivots from one off course purchases to subscriptions, so the modest 3.9% forecast revenue growth rate for the overall business fits with that trade off.
- With the company still unprofitable on a trailing twelve month basis and revenue growth lagging the 11.6% US market figure, the cautious view that top line trends may limit margin expansion currently lines up closely with the reported numbers.
If you are weighing that slower growth against the longer term subscription story, it can help to see how the more cautious narrative frames these same figures.🐻 Udemy Bear Case
Share Price Sits Well Below DCF Fair Value
- Udemy trades at US$4.63 per share with a P/S of 0.9x, compared with peers at 1.0x and the industry at 1.2x. The data cites a DCF fair value of US$19.69, which is well above the current share price.
- Consensus narrative notes that earnings of US$3.8 million today and an expected move to US$40.2 million by around 2029 are already embedded in a price target of US$7.60, so the current P/S discount and gap to the quoted DCF fair value invite investors to check whether the assumptions on margins and growth still feel reasonable in light of trailing twelve month losses of US$7.0 million.
- Analysts in the consensus view expect revenue to reach US$867.2 million and margins to move from 0.5% to 4.6% over the next few years, while the latest trailing twelve month revenue of US$781.0 million shows that most of that revenue step up is still ahead.
- Because the company remains loss making on a trailing basis, the apparent discount to both the 1.0x peer P/S level and the DCF fair value of US$19.69 depends heavily on those margin assumptions. This means readers may want to cross check the inputs rather than focusing only on the headline gap.
Next Steps
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Udemy on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
The mix of risks and rewards in this update may feel finely balanced, so it makes sense to move quickly and test the numbers yourself. To see which factors current optimists are focusing on, review the 4 key rewards
Explore Alternatives
Udemy is still reporting losses, is showing slower forecast revenue growth than the broader US market, and is relying heavily on future margin improvement that has not yet arrived.
If you want stocks where current fundamentals already look stronger, use the 70 resilient stocks with low risk scores to quickly spot companies with more resilient earnings and business profiles today.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
