Union Pacific (UNP) opened Q1 2026 earnings season with Q4 2025 revenue of US$6.1 billion and basic EPS of US$3.12, capping a trailing twelve month period in which EPS reached US$12.00 on revenue of US$24.5 billion and earnings grew 5.8% year over year. Over recent quarters, the company has seen revenue move in a tight range between US$6.0 billion and US$6.2 billion while quarterly basic EPS tracked between US$2.71 and US$3.16. This gives a clear view of how the earnings line has behaved against a relatively steady top line. With net profit margin at 29.1% and a 2.03% dividend yield, the focus this quarter is on how efficiently those revenues are being converted into profit and income for shareholders.

See our full analysis for Union Pacific.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings print lines up with the dominant narratives around Union Pacific, highlighting where the story is confirmed and where expectations may need a reset.

Margins Hold Steady Around 29.1%

• Trailing twelve month net profit is US$7.1b on US$24.5b of revenue, which works out to a 29.1% net margin versus 27.8% a year earlier.
• Consensus narrative highlights efficiency projects and pricing as future margin drivers, and the current 29.1% margin gives a concrete base to test that view against:
  • Efficiency tools and resource management are expected to support earnings per share, and the trailing EPS of about US$12.00 shows that profitability is already meaningful.
  • Plans to grow higher margin areas like renewable fuels and automotive sit alongside this margin level, so any shift in mix will show up directly in that 29.1% figure over time.

Revenue Growth Forecasts Versus US Market

• Revenue is forecast to grow around 8.1% per year while earnings are forecast near 7.27% a year, both below the US market revenue forecast of 10.9%.
• Analysts' consensus view points to capacity expansion and high growth segments as volume drivers, and these forecasts frame how much impact those efforts are expected to have:
  • New infrastructure in places such as Houston and Phoenix and focus on areas such as automotive are expected to support revenue, yet the 8.1% forecast still trails the broader market.
  • Expected earnings growth of roughly 7.27% a year builds on the US$7.1b of trailing net income, so any slowdown in volumes or pricing would show up quickly against that path.

Valuation Gap, Debt, And Growth Trade Off

• At a share price of US$271.26, the trailing P/E is 22.6x versus peers at 28.8x, the US Transportation average at 40.7x, and a DCF fair value of about US$319.88.
• Bears focus on the high debt level and growth that runs below broad US forecasts, and the current numbers show why that trade off matters:
  • The stock trades about 15.2% below the DCF fair value and below peer and industry P/E levels, which sits alongside the flagged high leverage in the risk summary.
  • With revenue growth expectations at 8.1% and earnings growth at roughly 7.27% a year, skeptics point out that balance sheet risk is not paired with top tier growth rates.

On these numbers, it is worth seeing how bullish and bearish analysts connect the earnings profile, leverage, and revenue mix to their long term cases for the stock. 🐻 Union Pacific Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Union Pacific on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

The mix of solid margins, forecast growth, and balance sheet questions gives a balanced picture, so move quickly to weigh the upside against the downside and review the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

See What Else Is Out There

Union Pacific combines high leverage with revenue and earnings growth forecasts that trail the broader US market, which may not suit every risk profile.

If you want similar earnings potential without leaning so hard on debt, check the 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores to quickly spot companies with more resilient profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.