Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 21% over the past week following uniQure N.V.'s (NASDAQ:QURE) latest quarterly results. Statutory results overall were mixed, with revenues coming in 32% lower than the analysts predicted. What's really surprising is that losses of US$0.84 per share were pretty much in line with forecasts, despite the revenue miss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from uniQure's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$22.6m in 2026. This would reflect a sizeable 25% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$3.47 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$34.2m and losses of US$3.55 per share in 2026. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$39.56, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic uniQure analyst has a price target of US$95.37 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$14.05. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that uniQure's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 35% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 61% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% per year. Not only are uniQure's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded uniQure's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for uniQure going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.