UPDATE 1-Bund yields near multi-month lows as investors weigh US tariff ruling
Adds comments, background
By Stefano Rebaudo
Feb 23 (Reuters) - Euro area benchmark Bund yields hovered near multi‑month lows on Monday as investors awaited data and weighed the impact of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Analysts said there was deep uncertainty over the U.S. administration’s future actions, even though many existing deals on tariffs and trade had been hammered out in bilateral agreements and were not directly impacted by the Supreme Court ruling.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that none of the countries that had reached trade deals with the U.S. had indicated plans to withdraw. But Bloomberg News reported the EU was poised to freeze the ratification process of its deal with the U.S. and was seeking more details from Washington.
Trump said on Saturday he will now raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on U.S. imports from all countries, a move that could cushion the impact on U.S. budget revenues.
"In terms of market impact, first and foremost it creates a lot of uncertainty over how the tariff policy would evolve over the coming months," Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, said. Jefferies was not changing any of its views on the market, Kumar added.
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield DE10YT=RR, the euro area’s benchmark, dropped 0.5 basis points (bps) to 2.73%. It reached 2.725% on Tuesday, its lowest since December 1, and was around 2.9% early this month.
German business morale rose slightly more than expected in February, pointing to the German economy finally turning a corner.
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday, with those of benchmark 10-year US10YT=RR paper down one basis point at 4.07%, after edging up last Friday.
Investors are awaiting U.S. producer prices data on Thursday and inflation figures from Germany, France and Spain on Friday.
"Inflation data for February should show that the disinflation trajectory remains gradual," said Rainer Guntermann, rate strategist at Commerzbank.
Economists have warned that a strong euro could amplify the deflationary impact of China’s export machine and potentially push the ECB toward cutting rates.
Data recently showed the EU's trade surplus kept shrinking, as rising Chinese imports crowded out domestic production.
Germany’s two-year yields DE2YT=RR, more sensitive to expectations for policy rates, fell 1.5 bps to 2.05%.
Italy’s 10-year government bond yields IT10YT=RR were flat at 3.35%. The gap versus Bunds was at 59 bps after falling to 53.50 in mid-January, its lowest since August 2008.
