Adds more details from the note

July 8 (Reuters) - HSBC lowered its Brent crude price forecast for 2026 to $80 per barrel from $95/bbl on Wednesday, with the bank assuming a return to normal Gulf oil exports by September-end.

The bank also lowered its 2027 Brent price forecast to $65/bbl from $75/bbl.

Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a two-week high after U.S. President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding to end the conflict with Iran was "over". O/R

Here are some details from the HSBC report:

• The revision reflects a faster rebalancing of the oil market that began before the U.S.-Iran deal and accelerated with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

• The bank expects Hormuz traffic to recover to about 80% of pre-conflict levels by September-end and bypass pipelines operating at full capacity.

• Once flows normalise, the market is likely to return to surplus from 4Q26 onwards.

• By end-1Q27, global oil stocks could return to their February 2026 peaks, erasing the March-to-Sept drawdowns, and then continue climbing towards potentially new highs.

• A cyclical surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day (mbd) could emerge, with some partial offset from inventory refilling demand of 1-2 mbd.

• Upside risks centre on a slower and more volatile recovery in Hormuz traffic and Gulf upstream output, and stronger Chinese buying or inventory refilling demand.