UPDATE 1-JPMorgan lowers 2026 gold forecast, still sees rally towards $6,000 on renewed demand
Jpmorgan Chase JPM | 0.00 |
Adds details from the note; changes dateline and headline
May 18 (Reuters) - JPMorgan JPM.N said late on Sunday that it has lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, citing weaker near-term demand for the precious metal.
Despite the downgrade, the bank still expects prices to rise towards $6,000/oz by year-end as energy and inflation uncertainties ease, and investor as well as central bank demand rebounds in the second half of the year.
JPMorgan said that investor interest in gold and silver has slowed significantly in the recent months.
Gold prices have dropped about 14% since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, with elevated oil prices fuelling concerns over inflation and higher global interest rates.
The bank said a resolution to the U.S.-Iran war and a reversal in the dollar could spark a recovery rally in bullion, helping it to challenge a key technical resistance at $4,900-$5,100/oz.
JPMorgan expects investors who reduced exposure to gold to gradually return, supported by strong long-term bullish fundamentals.
The bank forecasts quarterly central bank and investor demand for gold to average around 620 tons a quarter in 2026, compared with 750 tons last year.
The bank also said extreme tightness in physical silver markets that drove the metal's outperformance over the last year was likely behind us.
The bank expects silver to reach an average of $90/oz by the fourth quarter.
The bank sees palladium prices averaging $1,586/oz in 2026, compared with $1,344/oz earlier.
JPMorgan sees platinum rising to an average of $2,400/oz by the fourth quarter and expects it to remain in deficit in 2026 and 2027.
