UPDATE 1-JPMorgan lowers 2026 gold forecast, still sees rally towards $6,000 on renewed demand

Jpmorgan Chase

Jpmorgan Chase

JPM

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- JPMorgan JPM.N said late on Sunday that it has lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, citing weaker near-term demand for the precious metal.

  • Despite the downgrade, the bank still expects prices to rise towards $6,000/oz by year-end as energy and inflation uncertainties ease, and investor as well as central bank demand rebounds in the second half of the year.

  • JPMorgan said that investor interest in gold and silver has slowed significantly in the recent months.

  • Gold prices have dropped about 14% since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, with elevated oil prices fuelling concerns over inflation and higher global interest rates.

  • The bank said a resolution to the U.S.-Iran war and a reversal in the dollar could spark a recovery rally in bullion, helping it to challenge a key technical resistance at $4,900-$5,100/oz.

  • JPMorgan expects investors who reduced exposure to gold to gradually return, supported by strong long-term bullish fundamentals.

  • The bank forecasts quarterly central bank and investor demand for gold to average around 620 tons a quarter in 2026, compared with 750 tons last year.

  • The bank also said extreme tightness in physical silver markets that drove the metal's outperformance over the last year was likely behind us.

  • The bank expects silver to reach an average of $90/oz by the fourth quarter.

  • The bank sees palladium prices averaging $1,586/oz in 2026, compared with $1,344/oz earlier.

  • JPMorgan sees platinum rising to an average of $2,400/oz by the fourth quarter and expects it to remain in deficit in 2026 and 2027.