UPDATE 1-US natgas futures fall 3% as demand outlook weakens and LNG feedgas drops
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 0.00 |
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Tuesday on lowered demand forecasts for the next two weeks, with gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants expected to drop during the usual spring maintenance season.
After rising for six days in a row, front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.9 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at $2.788 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since April 7 for a third day in a row.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 62 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 71 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative $2.22 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021 to 2025).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Output has declined over the past couple of months due in part to low spot prices, which prompted energy firms like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to temporarily reduce production as they wait for prices to rise later in the year.
Analysts said mostly mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual. They noted, however, that recent output declines coupled with cooler weather and higher demand likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 7% above normal during the week ended May 1, down from 8% above during the week ended April 24. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 20 with cooling demand starting to overtake heating demand for the first time this year.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold near 97.8 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to 17.3 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended May 1 Forecast |
Week ended April 24 Actual |
Year ago May 1 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 1 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+72 |
+79 |
+104 |
+77 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,214 |
2,142 |
2,130 |
2,066 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+7.2% |
+7.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.85 |
2.87 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.57 |
15.49 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.86 |
16.86 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
71 |
79 |
55 |
81 |
78 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
79 |
71 |
71 |
69 |
65 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
150 |
150 |
126 |
150 |
143 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
108.2 |
109.2 |
110.0 |
105.1 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.0 |
115.8 |
117.0 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.6 |
5.6 |
6.4 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.2 |
17.0 |
17.3 |
14.7 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
6.7 |
6.3 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
7.9 |
7.1 |
5.6 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
31.7 |
28.8 |
30.7 |
31.2 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.4 |
22.6 |
22.1 |
22.7 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.2 |
72.2 |
71.4 |
73.8 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
103.1 |
97.6 |
97.9 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 8 |
Week ended May 1 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
15 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
12 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
32 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.67 |
2.63 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
1.99 |
1.89 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.36 |
1.31 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.83 |
1.83 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.37 |
2.25 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.05 |
2.45 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
1.95 |
1.92 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-4.16 |
-4.32 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
0.99 |
0.96 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
51.09 |
44.00 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West M E-PJWHRTP-IX |
72.17 |
47.11 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
25.35 |
23.10 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
17.50 |
21.33 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
9.28 |
5.75 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |