UPDATE 1-US natgas prices fall 4% after heat wave, drop in oil prices
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By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% on Wednesday with the approach of milder, more spring-like weather and the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, which together should depress gas demand after a heat wave blasted the Mid-Atlantic region this week.
Analysts also cited a 6% drop in oil prices CLc1, LCOc1 after U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the " final stages ".
After rising for five days in a row, front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.0 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $3.004 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since March 19.
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 4.
RECORD HEAT IN WASHINGTON, D.C.
Temperatures in Washington, D.C., were on track to hit 96 degrees Fahrenheit (35.6 degrees Celsius) on Wednesday after hitting a record-breaking 97 F on Tuesday before dropping to 70 F on Thursday and 61 F on Friday and Saturday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather.
That compares with the prior all-time high of 96 F on May 19 in 1997 and 96 F on May 20 in 1996. The normal high in the nation's capital around this time of year is 77 F.
To escape the heat, homes and businesses in the PJM power grid, which includes Washington, cranked up their air conditioners, boosting spot prices by 449% earlier this week to $229 per megawatt-hour, the highest since January. PJM manages the grid in all or part of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 98.3 bcfd this week to 97.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
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Week ended May 15 Forecast |
Week ended May 8 Actual |
Year ago May 15 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 15 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+85 |
+85 |
+119 |
+92 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,375 |
2,290 |
2,358 |
2,242 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.9% |
+6.5% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.11 |
3.11 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
17.30 |
17.43 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
19.61 |
18.96 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
27 |
31 |
41 |
44 |
45 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
129 |
126 |
91 |
102 |
97 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
156 |
157 |
132 |
146 |
142 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.1 |
109.5 |
110.0 |
106.2 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
115.9 |
116.6 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.4 |
7.4 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.7 |
16.7 |
17.2 |
15.2 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.7 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
6.1 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
30.7 |
32.1 |
32.6 |
32.5 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.1 |
21.8 |
21.6 |
22.7 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.1 |
71.5 |
70.8 |
74.2 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
98.9 |
98.3 |
97.8 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
88 |
88 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
92 |
92 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
97 |
97 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 22 |
Week ended May 15 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
17 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
35 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
14 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.23 |
3.07 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.39 |
2.38 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.60 |
1.52 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.29 |
2.17 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.65 |
2.53 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.57 |
2.99 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.40 |
2.20 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-2.73 |
-3.21 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.14 |
1.11 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
79.09 |
89.99 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
110.37 |
228.78 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
20.22 |
7.31 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
20.25 |
10.00 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
6.84 |
3.81 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |