UPDATE 1-US natgas prices fall on higher output and ample storage despite heat wave
PG&E Corporation PCG | 0.00 |
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid on Wednesday on a rise in output over the past month and ample amounts of gas in storage, despite forecasts for record power demand in some parts of the country as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners to escape a brutal heat wave.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.5 cents, or around 1.7%, to settle at $3.22 per million British thermal units.
High temperatures in New York, the nation's biggest city, will reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius) on Thursday and Friday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather. If correct, Thursday's high would tie a record for that day set in 1966. The normal high for this time of year in the city is around 84 F.
With extreme heat expected, PJM, which serves 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois, making it the nation's biggest electric grid, has forecast that demand on July 2 will reach 166.3 gigawatts (GW), which would top the current record of 165.6 GW set in 2006.
Next-day power prices in New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX and PJM E-PJWHRTP-IX soared to their highest levels since the winter when prices in both regions hit record highs during an extreme freeze.
But in the Western U.S., where the weather is mild and renewable sources of electricity, like hydropower, are plentiful, next-day gas at the PG&E citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL in Northern California fell to a record low of 83 cents per mmBtu.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in June, up from 109.6 bcfd in May. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
They projected the amount of gas in inventories would edge up to 6.2% above normal during the week ended June 26, up from 5.7% above in the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through July 16, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.1 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was higher.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.4 bcfd in June from 17.1 bcfd in May, with record feedgas to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended Jun 26 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 19 Actual |
Year ago Jun 26 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 26 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+81 |
+76 |
+61 |
+64 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,916 |
2,835 |
2,945 |
2,747 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.2% |
+5.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.23 |
3.28 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
12.78 |
12.80 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.05 |
15.82 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
250 |
243 |
212 |
201 |
191 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
253 |
246 |
216 |
205 |
196 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.4 |
110.2 |
110.6 |
107.5 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.1 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.5 |
117.3 |
117.5 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.4 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.6 |
17.7 |
17.7 |
15.4 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
38.5 |
41.0 |
45.2 |
44.2 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
75.6 |
78.2 |
82.4 |
81.8 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
102.7 |
105.3 |
109.7 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
84 |
84 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
89 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
94 |
94 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 3 |
Week ended June 26 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
15 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
17 |
16 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.33 |
3.33 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
3.01 |
3.01 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
0.83 |
1.35 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.71 |
2.80 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.85 |
2.89 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
3.83 |
3.42 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.22 |
1.23 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
0.87 |
1.81 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
0.96 |
1.08 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
142.84 |
76.90 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
361.42 |
134.37 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
7.47 |
5.01 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
13.00 |
11.00 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
2.15 |
10.81 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |