UPDATE 1-US natgas prices hold at six-week low as higher demand offsets rising output
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a six-week low on Tuesday on a bearish rise in output and expectations that flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants will decline during maintenance at Freeport LNG in Texas.
That lack of price movement came despite bullish forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.7 cent, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.904 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since May 26 for a third day in a row.
Despite the small increase, the front-month remained in technically oversold territory for a third day in a row for the first time since April.
In a sign the market is not too worried about gas supplies in coming months, the premium of futures for March over April 2027 NGH27-J27 fell to a record low of around 18 cents per mmBtu.
The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006.
Traders use the March-April NGH27-J27 and October-November NGV26-X26 spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, they projected the amount of gas in storage held at 6.6% above normal during the week ended July 10, the same as the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through July 29, forcing power generators to burn lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 110.4 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.6 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June, but remain below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
That increase in average LNG feedgas came despite the reduction in flows to Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd export plant in Texas for planned work from July 10 to late August.
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Week ended Jul 10 Forecast |
Week ended Jul 3 Actual |
Year ago Jul 10 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 10 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+48 |
+61 |
+47 |
+45 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
3,031 |
2,983 |
3,045 |
2,843 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.6% |
+6.6% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.89 |
2.90 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
17.73 |
17.12 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.53 |
16.52 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
234 |
228 |
219 |
213 |
203 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
236 |
231 |
222 |
216 |
206 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.7 |
110.8 |
110.9 |
107.6 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.5 |
7.6 |
7.0 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.2 |
118.5 |
118.0 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.1 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.8 |
17.2 |
17.5 |
16.0 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
46.1 |
46.7 |
45.8 |
47.7 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
83.5 |
84.0 |
83.2 |
85.7 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
110.7 |
110.5 |
110.3 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
84 |
83 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
94 |
93 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 17 |
Week ended July 10 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
6 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
44 |
43 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
18 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.83 |
2.73 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.60 |
2.21 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
2.66 |
2.23 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.37 |
2.10 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.61 |
2.56 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
3.22 |
2.38 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.37 |
3.05 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.73 |
1.80 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.13 |
1.11 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
130.71 |
62.00 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
150.82 |
90.21 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
58.72 |
55.78 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
57.33 |
51.00 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
44.93 |
38.91 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |