UPDATE 1-US natgas prices sink to 17-month low as supply surges, demand declines
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 2.74 | -3.18% |
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a fresh 17-month low on Monday on near-record production so far this month, ample supplies of gas in storage and forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.1 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.627 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest since October 29, 2024 for a second day in a row.
That kept the contract in oversold territory for a third day in a row for the first time since December 2025.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 46 straight days as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 111.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts projected that mostly mild spring weather has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 5.3% above normal levels during the week ended April 10, up from 4.8% above normal during the week ended April 3. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through April 28, keeping both heating and cooling demand low.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 100.6 bcfd this week to 101.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years due primarily to supply disruptions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the 2026 war in Iran. In response to U.S. and Israeli bombings, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz and attacked Qatar's LNG export facilities, knocking out about 10 bcfd or around 20% of the world's LNG supplies.
Gas prices in the U.S., however, have not reacted to the Iran war as elsewhere. That is because the U.S. produces all the gas it needs domestically and U.S. LNG plants were already operating at maximum capacity. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more LNG.
Since the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, U.S. gas NGc1 prices are down about 5% versus massive increases of 45% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 81% in Asia JKMc1.
Week ended April 10 Forecast |
Week ended April 3 Actual |
Year ago April 10 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) April 10 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+50 |
+50 |
+22 |
+38 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
1,961 |
1,911 |
1,844 |
1,862 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.3% |
+4.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.70 |
2.65 |
3.43 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.32 |
15.09 |
11.48 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
19.42 |
19.50 |
12.23 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
109 |
105 |
110 |
148 |
148 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
53 |
57 |
49 |
38 |
33 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
162 |
162 |
159 |
186 |
181 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
111.3 |
110.6 |
110.5 |
106.8 |
99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
N/A |
7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
118.1 |
117.2 |
117.0 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
N/A |
2.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.1 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
N/A |
6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.6 |
18.7 |
18.8 |
16.1 |
13.1 |
U.S. Commercial |
8.9 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
U.S. Residential |
12.0 |
7.7 |
8.5 |
9.9 |
11.4 |
U.S. Power Plant |
28.8 |
29.4 |
28.1 |
29.5 |
27.2 |
U.S. Industrial |
23.4 |
22.3 |
22.8 |
22.9 |
23.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
81.0 |
73.4 |
73.9 |
77.8 |
79.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
108.2 |
100.6 |
101.1 |
N/A |
100.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
97 |
96 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
100 |
99 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
103 |
102 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Apr 17 |
Week ended Apr 10 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
19 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
33 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
12 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.64 |
2.78 |
3.41 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
1.84 |
1.93 |
2.81 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.25 |
1.30 |
2.63 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.77 |
1.98 |
2.69 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.11 |
2.38 |
3.03 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
1.95 |
2.24 |
3.15 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.03 |
2.15 |
2.94 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-5.35 |
-4.06 |
1.38 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
0.84 |
0.93 |
1.60 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
45.98 |
45.98 |
42.26 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
60.10 |
47.01 |
50.50 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
8.07 |
18.00 |
26.45 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
2.81 |
10.03 |
25.26 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
1.88 |
6.29 |
9.76 |
28.44 |
53.02 |