UPDATE 1-US natgas prices up 2% on forecasts for higher demand, rising oil futures
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday on forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected, including an increase in feedgas at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas after shutting earlier this week.
Gas prices were also pulled higher by a 4% increase in oil futures CLc1 due to supply disruptions from renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.3 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $2.911 per million British thermal units. On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest since May 12.
For the week, the front month declined for a fourth week in a row for the first time since February, falling about 1% this week.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in July from 110.0 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, analysts projected the amount of gas in storage likely rose to 6.5% above normal during the week ended July 17, up from 6.4% during the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 1, forcing power generators to keep burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 111.5 bcfd for the next few weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants held at 17.4 bcfd so far in July, the same as in June, remaining below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the U.S. war with Iran in 2026.
Around the world, gas was trading at a 17-week high near $19 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and at a 14-week high near $20 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
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Week ended Jul 17 Forecast |
Week ended Jul 10 Actual |
Year ago Jul 17 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 17 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+35 |
+41 |
+27 |
+30 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
3,059 |
3,024 |
3,072 |
2,873 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.5% |
+6.4% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.87 |
2.86 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
19.01 |
18.38 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
19.93 |
19.93 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
237 |
239 |
219 |
213 |
203 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
240 |
242 |
222 |
216 |
206 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.7 |
110.8 |
110.2 |
107.6 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.5 |
7.9 |
7.2 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.2 |
118.8 |
117.4 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.1 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.8 |
17.0 |
17.5 |
16.0 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
46.1 |
47.9 |
47.2 |
47.7 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
83.5 |
85.3 |
84.5 |
85.7 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
110.7 |
111.5 |
111.5 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
83 |
83 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
93 |
93 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 17 |
Week ended July 10 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
6 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
45 |
43 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
19 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
17 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.83 |
2.80 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.30 |
2.47 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
2.64 |
2.55 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.23 |
2.27 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.65 |
2.66 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.45 |
2.71 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.35 |
3.45 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.89 |
1.78 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.22 |
1.26 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
51.79 |
72.66 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
99.94 |
338.79 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
40.76 |
43.61 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
35.14 |
46.50 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
32.60 |
38.60 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |