UPDATE 1-US natural gas futures fall 3% on lower demand forecast
Adds closing prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Monday on as demand forecasts for this week were revised lower.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 11.1 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $3.179 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its highest price since February 6.
After futures gained 19% in May, speculators last week boosted their net short futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to their highest levels since April 2024, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mild spring weather allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas into storage than usual.
But they noted recent output declines likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 5.9% above normal during the week ended May 29 from 6.2% above normal the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking forward, meteorologists forecast mostly warmer-than-normal weather through June 16, which should boost demand for gas from power generators to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. electricity generation comes from gas-fired power plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 98.4 bcfd this week to 101.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.1 bcfd in May due to spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass facility and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
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Week ended May 29 Forecast |
Week ended May 22 Actual |
Year ago May 29 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 29 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+100 |
+92 |
+119 |
+101 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,583 |
2,483 |
2,581 |
2,440 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.9% |
+6.2% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.34 |
3.29 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.31 |
16.18 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.30 |
18.34 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
9 |
16 |
20 |
20 |
25 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
165 |
147 |
138 |
138 |
127 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
174 |
163 |
158 |
158 |
152 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.8 |
109.8 |
110.2 |
105.8 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.3 |
116.2 |
116.3 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.5 |
7.1 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.1 |
16.9 |
17.2 |
13.9 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
4.5 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
34.4 |
34.4 |
37.2 |
35.3 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.3 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
73.0 |
72.4 |
74.7 |
73.8 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
100.2 |
98.4 |
101.1 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
97 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Jun 5 |
Week ended May 29 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
13 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
12 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
35 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
12 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
21 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.34 |
3.04 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.09 |
2.00 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.81 |
1.71 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.07 |
1.97 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.66 |
2.44 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.15 |
2.05 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.51 |
2.37 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-1.33 |
-1.04 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.39 |
1.31 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
44.00 |
42.42 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
36.82 |
37.11 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
13.49 |
3.27 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
26.23 |
7.50 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
11.15 |
2.25 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |