UPDATE 1-US natural gas prices fall 4% to one-week low as mild weather curbs demand
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a one-week low on Friday ahead of the long U.S. Memorial Day weekend, on forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.1 cents, or 3.7%, to settle at $2.907 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since May 14.
For the week, the contract was down about 2% after gaining about 7% last week.
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
AMPLE GAS IN STORAGE
Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual.
But they noted recent output declines coupled with higher demand in recent weeks likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 22, down from around 7% above normal during the week ended May 15. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking forward, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through June 6.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 98.9 bcfd this week to 97.8 bcfd next week before rising to 99.2 bcfd in two weeks. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
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Week ended May 22 Forecast |
Week ended May 15 Actual |
Year ago May 22 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 22 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+90 |
+101 |
+104 |
+97 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,481 |
2,391 |
2,462 |
2,339 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.1% |
+6.6% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.00 |
3.02 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.54 |
16.82 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.92 |
18.91 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
26 |
23 |
41 |
44 |
41 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
114 |
127 |
91 |
102 |
102 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
140 |
150 |
132 |
146 |
143 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.1 |
109.6 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
116.1 |
116.0 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.4 |
7.5 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.7 |
16.7 |
17.2 |
15.2 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.7 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
6.1 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
30.7 |
32.5 |
32.3 |
32.5 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.1 |
21.8 |
21.6 |
22.7 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.1 |
72.1 |
70.7 |
74.2 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
98.9 |
98.9 |
97.8 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
88 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
92 |
92 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
97 |
97 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 22 |
Week ended May 15 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
14 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
14 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.15 |
3.18 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.01 |
2.13 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.63 |
1.63 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SN |
2.02 |
2.08 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.52 |
2.65 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.13 |
2.35 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.38 |
2.34 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-3.18 |
-2.79 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.21 |
1.24 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
33.55 |
41.33 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
35.59 |
41.00 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
32.63 |
32.63 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
20.00 |
20.00 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
2.51 |
2.51 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |