Adds latest prices, details

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared by a record 114% over five days to a three-year high on Monday after an Arctic blast over the weekend froze oil and gas wells and pipes, cutting gas production to a two-year low on Sunday.

On Monday, front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.37, or 15.2%, to $6.644 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since December 2022.

That price jump came despite a bearish drop in gas flows to all U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants over the weekend.

In the cash market, next-day gas and power prices soared to multi-year highs in several parts of the country, including a 265% gain at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana to a record $30.72 per mmBtu, and a 379% gain at the Eastern Gas hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in Pennsylvania to a record $40.00.

Other gas hubs with multi-year highs included New England NG-CG-BS-SNL at $50.50 per mmBtu and New York NG-CG-NY-SNL at $61.48, their highest since January 2018, Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL at $34.16, its highest since February 2021, and Waha NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas, which was up 566% to $17.16, its highest since January 2024.

In the power market, next-day prices in New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX soared about 82% to $313 per megawatt hour, while PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX prices in Pennsylvania and Maryland soared about 360% to around $413, their highest since January 2014.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states dropped to 106.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, output fell to a two-year low of 92.6 bcfd on Sunday due mostly to freezing wells in Texas and Louisiana, according to LSEG data. That compares with a recent high of 110.0 bcfd on January 12 and an all-time daily high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.

Now that the worst of the Arctic blast is likely past, output was on track to slowly edge up to 95.5 bcfd on Monday.

That means output fell about 17.4 bcfd from January 13-25. In past winters, freezing wells, known as freeze-offs in the energy industry, have slashed gas output by massive amounts, including the loss of around 17.2 bcfd from January 8-16 in 2024, cuts of 15.8 bcfd from December 20-24 in 2022, and a drop of 20.4 bcfd from February 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data.

One billion cubic feet of gas can supply about 5 million U.S. homes for a day.

Even though meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 10, energy analysts noted the coldest days were likely behind.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 168.9 bcfd this week to 153.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

On a daily basis, LSEG reduced its forecast for total demand on January 26 to 178.6 bcfd on Monday, down from a forecast 181.4 bcfd on Friday due in part to the decline in gas flows to LNG export plants. If correct, total daily gas demand should remain below the all-time high of 181.2 bcfd set on January 21, 2025.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.9 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to 13.5 bcfd on Monday after dropping to a one-year low of 12.1 bcfd on Sunday due to reductions at all plants, including Freeport LNG in Texas and Elba Island in Georgia.

	Week ended Jan 23 Forecast	Week ended Jan 16 Actual	Year ago Jan 23	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 23
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-202	-120	-307	-208
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,863	3,065	2,617	2,680
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.8%	+6.1%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	6.11	5.28	3.72	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	14.15	13.66	14.67	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.29	11.22	14.16	12.24	18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	558	581	375	427	443
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	2	1	11	4	3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	560	582	386	431	445
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.4	99.2	102.3	105.3	98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.3	10.9	8.6	N/A	9.6
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	117.8	110.2	110.9	N/A	108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.9	2.0	2.2	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.0	6.1	5.9	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.8	14.6	15.6	14.8	12.8
U.S. Commercial	19.9	25.2	21.5	16.7	17.3
U.S. Residential	33.7	44.6	36.8	28.4	29.9
U.S. Power Plant	35.2	39.1	35.6	34.4	32.5
U.S. Industrial	26.7	28.4	27.2	25.3	26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	4.9	5.1	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.3	3.9	3.4	3.3	4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	124.2	146.3	129.6	113.5	115.5
Total U.S. Demand	151.9	168.9	153.4	N/A	137.0
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	94	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	98	99	80	77	76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Jan 30	Week ended Jan 23	2025	2024	2023
Wind	7	12	11	11	10
Solar	3	4	6	5	4
Hydro	6	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	2	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	40	37	40	42	41
Coal	23	20	18	16	17
Nuclear	17	19	18	19	19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	30.72	8.42	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	61.48	12.57	8.77	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.55	3.95	3.87	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	40.00	8.36	3.74	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	34.16	15.88	3.93	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	50.50	24.96	15.67	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	7.01	4.42	4.49	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	17.16	4.42	3.27	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	2.15	2.32	1.22	1.13	2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	312.50	171.36	147.88	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	412.84	89.67	75.11	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	58.70	53.93	52.79	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	83.65	53.00	44.47	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	72.24	50.20	39.98	28.44	53.02