UPDATE 2-US natgas prices edge up as output falls to 15-week low and demand rises
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday on a drop in output in recent days and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.0 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $2.894 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added an expected, near-normal 85 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 8.
That reading was in line with the 85-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, below the increase of 109 bcf during the same week last year and slightly above the five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 84 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has slid to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output is on track to drop by 4.0 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 15-week low of 106.1 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Output has fallen in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, such as EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production while waiting for prices to rise.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 29.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 99.2 bcfd this week and next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due in part to reductions at several plants, including Exxon Mobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was down even further and on track to drop to a 15-week low of 15.9 bcfd on Thursday.
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Week ended May 8 Actual |
Week ended May 1 Actual |
Year ago May 8 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 8 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+85 |
+63 |
+109 |
+84 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,290 |
2,205 |
2,239 |
2,150 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.5% |
+6.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.84 |
2.86 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.22 |
16.00 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
17.02 |
16.99 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
35 |
41 |
60 |
61 |
57 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
112 |
106 |
93 |
84 |
83 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
147 |
147 |
153 |
145 |
140 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.5 |
108.9 |
109.3 |
105.6 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
115.6 |
115.8 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.8 |
7.4 |
7.1 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.0 |
16.7 |
17.0 |
15.3 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
6.5 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
7.3 |
6.1 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
29.1 |
31.1 |
33.0 |
32.4 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.6 |
22.1 |
21.7 |
22.2 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.9 |
72.4 |
72.1 |
71.7 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
99.4 |
99.3 |
99.0 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
90 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 15 |
Week ended May 8 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
13 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
11 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
36 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.88 |
2.91 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.17 |
2.10 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.59 |
1.60 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.07 |
2.00 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.32 |
2.38 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.30 |
2.27 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-2.39 |
-2.87 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.12 |
1.18 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
44.67 |
45.20 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
46.57 |
42.63 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
2.72 |
1.45 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
12.72 |
16.20 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
1.01 |
-1.09 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |