UPDATE 2-US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand outlook improves
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday as stronger demand forecasts and lower output supported prices despite a larger-than-expected storage build and reduced LNG flows.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 101 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended May 15.
That was bigger than the 95-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 119 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 92 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange edged up 1.4 cents, or 0.5%, to $3.018 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Looking forward, the premium of futures for July over June NGM26-N26 fell to a 13-month low near 14 cents per mmBtu.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Meteorologists forecast weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 5, prompting power companies to burn more gas than usual as some homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.0 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
|
Week ended May 15 Actual |
Week ended May 8 Actual |
Year ago May 15 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 15 |
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+101 |
+85 |
+119 |
+92 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,391 |
2,290 |
2,358 |
2,242 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.6% |
+6.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.02 |
3.00 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.96 |
16.66 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.91 |
19.61 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
23 |
27 |
41 |
44 |
43 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
127 |
129 |
91 |
102 |
99 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
150 |
156 |
132 |
146 |
142 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.1 |
109.3 |
109.7 |
106.2 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
115.8 |
116.3 |
N/A |
107.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.4 |
7.6 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.7 |
16.7 |
17.3 |
15.2 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.7 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
6.1 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
30.7 |
32.6 |
33.0 |
32.5 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.1 |
21.8 |
21.6 |
22.7 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.1 |
72.1 |
71.2 |
74.2 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
98.9 |
99.0 |
98.3 |
N/A |
94.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A = Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
88 |
88 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
92 |
92 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
97 |
97 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Week ended May 22 |
Week ended May 15 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
16 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
36 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
14 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.18 |
3.23 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.13 |
2.39 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.63 |
1.60 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SN |
2.08 |
2.29 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.65 |
2.65 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.35 |
2.57 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.34 |
2.40 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-2.79 |
-2.73 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.24 |
1.14 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
41.33 |
79.09 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
41.00 |
110.37 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
32.63 |
20.22 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
20.00 |
20.25 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
2.51 |
6.84 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |