UPDATE 4-Norwegian Cruise cuts profit forecast as Middle East conflict raises fuel costs

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

NCLH

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Updates shares, adds details from the release

Norwegian cites weak demand, booking missteps

Q1 revenue of $2.33 bln vs estimates of $2.36 bln

Shares fall 9% in early trading

By Anuja Bharat Mistry

- Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH.N cut its annual profit forecast on Monday, as the cruise operator battles surging fuel costs linked to the war in the Middle East and tepid demand for its sea voyages, sending its shares down 9% in early trading.

Global oil prices surged above $100 a barrel after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran led to the closure of ​the Strait of Hormuz. More than $50 billion worth of crude oil supply has been lost since the start of the Iran war, according to Reuters calculations as of mid-April.

Rivals Carnival CCL.N and Royal Caribbean RCL.N have also highlighted potential hits from rising fuel costs, and several global airlines have warned of jet fuel shortages.

Net of hedges, Norwegian expects annual fuel prices of $782 per metric ton, based on spot rates as of April 28, up from the prior $670. About 51% of its fuel consumption was hedged as of March 31, the company said.

The conflict has forced consumers to re-evaluate travel plans, particularly to Europe, further pressuring Norwegian's revenue. The company's current booking range was below optimal after execution missteps led to shorter Caribbean itineraries.

Norwegian now expects fiscal 2026 adjusted profit between $1.45 and $1.79 per share, compared with its prior forecast of $2.38.

Its first-quarter revenue of $2.33 billion missed analysts' average estimate of $2.36 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. But its adjusted profit of 23 cents beat estimates of 14 cents, partly due to the company's cost savings.

Norwegian expects annual cost savings of about $125 million from its turnaround efforts under new CEO John Chidsey, and adjusted net cruise cost, excluding fuel, to be about flat, compared with a 1% rise a year ago.

Chidsey, who took the helm in February, outlined a turnaround plan focused on financial discipline and better execution.

The changes followed pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, now Norwegian's largest shareholder, which led to the appointment of five new board members in March.

"We see the guidance reduction as a potential clearing event, with management execution now doubly important to return NCLH to a positive earnings cadence," Jefferies analysts said in a note.