Upstart Holdings (UPST) is back in focus after its second quarter 2026 report and guidance update on 4 August 2026. The company confirmed full year revenue expectations of about US$1.4b and reported higher net income and earnings per share.

Despite the stronger second quarter earnings update and confirmation of about US$1.4b in full year revenue guidance, Upstart Holdings' share price has been under sustained pressure. The year to date share price return is down 35.1% and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 54.44%, even though the 90 day share price return of 5.95% suggests some recent momentum from lower levels.

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Upstart Holdings is producing higher earnings and guiding to about US$1.4b in revenue for 2026, yet the stock is still down sharply over 1 year. Is this now a solid AI lending business offered at a reasonable price?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.9% Undervalued

Upstart Holdings' most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $40.13 per share, compared with the latest close at $29.75, which frames the stock as materially discounted and puts the focus on what would need to go right for that gap to close.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $40.13 for Upstart Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $80.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $20.0.

Want to see what sits behind that wide range of outcomes? The narrative leans heavily on rapid revenue expansion, rising profitability and a lower future earnings multiple to justify its fair value case.

Result: Fair Value of $40.13 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Upstart Holdings still faces clear risks if default rates rise again or its AI models misjudge credit risk, which could pressure margins and funding appetite.

Another View on Upstart Holdings’ Valuation

The analyst narrative frames Upstart Holdings as about 25.9% undervalued at $29.75 versus a fair value near $40.13. On simple P/E, the picture is less forgiving. UPST trades around 48x earnings compared with a fair ratio of 41.9x and a US Consumer Finance average near 9.9x, which points to a richer valuation and less margin for error. Which signal matters more for you: the growth story, or the current multiple gap?

Next Steps

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.