Upstart Holdings (UPST) has closed out FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$304.2 million and basic EPS of US$0.19, rounding off a trailing twelve month profile that includes US$1.1 billion in revenue and EPS of US$0.56 as the company moved into positive earnings territory over the year. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$220.4 million in Q1 2025 to US$304.2 million in Q4, while basic EPS tracked from a loss of US$0.03 in Q1 to profits of US$0.06, US$0.33 and then US$0.19 in Q2, Q3 and Q4. This sets up a story where the key question for investors is how durable these improving earnings and margins really are.

See our full analysis for Upstart Holdings.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings path lines up with the big narratives around Upstart, and where the data pushes back on some of those stories.

TTM profit of US$53.6 million after prior losses

• On a trailing twelve month basis, Upstart moved from a net loss of US$128.6 million in Q4 2024 to net income of US$53.6 million in Q4 2025, with TTM EPS shifting from a loss of US$1.44 to a profit of US$0.56 over the same window.
• Consensus narrative talks about higher approval rates and lower default risks from better underwriting models. This move to TTM profitability lines up with that view, although:
  • TTM revenue rose from US$677.0 million in Q4 2024 to US$1.1b in Q4 2025, which fits the idea of a larger opportunity set, but it does not by itself prove that defaults are lower or risk is reduced.
  • Quarterly net income was US$18.6 million in Q4 2025 versus a loss of US$2.8 million in Q4 2024, which supports the idea that the platform is handling volumes more efficiently, while still leaving open how sensitive that profitability is to future credit conditions.

Revenue run rate passes US$1.1b

• TTM revenue reached US$1.1b by Q4 2025, up from US$758.8 million at the start of FY 2025, and within the year individual quarters ranged from US$220.4 million in Q1 to US$304.2 million in Q4.
• Bulls argue that expanding into products like Home and Auto can drive much faster revenue growth, and the current TTM profile gives them some support but also a reality check:
  • Bullish forecasts call for revenue growth of 31.3% a year over the next 3 years, while the broader forecast data points to 23.7% annual growth, so the current US$1.1b base would need to keep scaling meaningfully to meet the more optimistic scenario.
  • The shift from a TTM loss of US$66.4 million in Q1 2025 to TTM net income of US$53.6 million in Q4 2025 supports the bullish idea of operating leverage from automation, yet it also means a lot of the story depends on that trend continuing from this new starting point.

Have bulls already priced in enough of this shift to profitability, or is the current run rate just the first leg of their thesis playing out? 🐂 Upstart Holdings Bull Case

Premium 60.5x P/E with interest cover risk

• The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 60.5x against about 8.4x for the US Consumer Finance industry and 9.1x for peers, while forecasts point to earnings growth of 44.4% a year and revenue growth of 23.7% a year.
• Bears focus on that rich multiple and the flag that interest payments are not well covered by earnings over the last 12 months, and the data gives them clear talking points:
  • The current share price of US$33.05 sits below a DCF fair value of roughly US$36.45 and below the allowed analyst target of US$54.57, yet the 60.5x P/E still implies very strong expectations compared with the rest of the sector.
  • Even with TTM net income of US$53.6 million, the identified issue that interest costs are not comfortably covered means any slowdown from the forecast 44.4% earnings growth pace could matter quickly for balance sheet flexibility.

If you are wondering how far cautious investors think this rich P/E can stretch before that interest cover risk bites, it is worth seeing how their full thesis fits together. 🐻 Upstart Holdings Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Upstart Holdings on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

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A great starting point for your Upstart Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

For all the progress on revenue and earnings, the premium 60.5x P/E combined with thin interest cover leaves Upstart exposed if growth expectations slip.

If that kind of rich multiple and interest cover concern makes you uneasy, it is a good time to scan for companies in our 84 resilient stocks with low risk scores that aim for steadier balance sheets and risk profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.