US-Iran Truce Strained As Hormuz Attacks Hit Tankers, Boost Energy Market Risk
The interim US–Iran truce came under sharp strain Saturday after attacks on a key US ally and vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh risks for regional stability and energy flows.
Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet, announced that Iranian drones attacked its territory. The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the strike “a blatant violation” of its sovereignty, Bahrain News Agency reported.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Saturday that an unidentified projectile struck a tanker in the strait. The vessel sustained damage to its bridge, with all crew reported safe, the naval group said. It advised ships to "transit with caution."
The Joint Maritime Information Center increased the security threat level in the strait to "substantial" following attacks on merchant vessels. It published a warning area for potential mines spanning much of the usual transit route.
Iran warned that safe passage through the strait could not be guaranteed without coordination with Tehran, Fars News Agency reported. Vessel-tracking data, however, showed that multiple ships continued to transit the waterway Saturday morning, Bloomberg reported.
Hormuz Transits At Risk
Fighting around the waterway for the third day risks slowing progress toward restoring shipping traffic in Hormuz. Washington and Tehran signed a 60-day truce last week that provides for the flow of vessels through the vital strait.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted strikes against Iran on Friday in response to an attack on a commercial ship transiting the strait. US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites.
Iran hit the M/V Ever Lovely on Thursday with a one-way attack drone. The Singapore-flagged cargo ship was exiting Hormuz along the Omani coast at the time of the attack
"The unwarranted aggression against commercial shipping by Iranian forces clearly violated the ceasefire," CENTCOM said. "Iran’s dangerous behavior undermined freedom of navigation as commerce increasingly flows through the vital international trade corridor."
The uncertainty around Hormuz will likely support energy prices after oil benchmarks posted their third-straight week of losses. Oil prices fell during Friday’s trading session. They rose after hours in the wake of a US retaliatory strike on Iran.
US, Iran Trade Accusations
Washington and Tehran have traded accusations that the other party violated the ceasefire.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry called the US attack "an explicit violation of the first paragraph of the Memorandum of Understanding." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it struck US military targets in retaliation for US strikes on its missile storage and radar installations on Friday. It accused Washington of a "changeless pattern of breaching its commitments.”
US President Donald Trump has said he would resume military action against Iran if it breaches the interim agreement’s terms. Vice President JD Vance warned Iran against further violations.
"Iran signed a ceasefire agreement," Vance posted on X. "We have honored it. If they have disagreements about how the MOU is being applied, they can pick up the phone. But violence will be met with violence.
Iran Wants to Control Hormuz
The two countries have clashed over whether Iran will impose tolls or other monetary costs on ships transiting Hormuz. Oman told European officials that vessels may ultimately have to be charged some fees, Bloomberg reported.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Qaribabadi, wrote on X that safe transit through Hormuz "cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements." Iran’s position as a coastal state must be considered, he said.
For the Institute for the Study of War, Iran is using Hormuz for diplomatic leverage.
"Iran is using force in an attempt to maintain its control over the Strait of Hormuz in the immediate future," the institute said on X. "Iran is likely attempting to prevent vessels from using non-Iranian shipping channels with force in the immediate term as it continues negotiations with the Gulf Arab states to secure long-term recognition of its control.
Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, said that Trump will “run out of patience at some point." The president will opt for a bigger strike if Iran continues to disrupt Hormuz shipping, Zahir said.
