US natgas advances 3% on rising LNG flows, record heat
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Tuesday on rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for record power demand in some parts of the country as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners to escape a brutal heat wave.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.2 cents, or 3.2%, to $3.283 per million British thermal units.
For the month, the front-month was down less than 1% in June after soaring about 19% in May.
Looking ahead, the premium of futures for August over September NGQ26-U26 rose to a record high of around 7 cents per mmBtu.
High temperatures in New York, the nation's biggest city, will reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius) on Thursday and Friday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather. If correct, Thursday's high would tie a record for that day set in 1966. The normal high for this time of year in the Big Apple is 84 F.
With extreme heat expected, PJM, the nation's biggest electric grid covering parts of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois, forecast demand on July 2 would reach 166.3 gigawatts (GW), which would top the current record of 165.6 GW in 2006.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 109.7 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
They projected the amount of gas in inventories would edge up to 5.9% above normal during the week ended June 26, up from 5.7% above in the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through July 15, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.1 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was higher.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose from 17.1 bcfd in May to 17.4 bcfd so far in June with record feedgas to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in service and under construction in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended Jun 26 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 19 Actual |
Year ago Jun 26 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 26 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+74 |
+76 |
+61 |
+64 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,909 |
2,835 |
2,945 |
2,747 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.9% |
+5.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.23 |
3.18 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
12.78 |
12.50 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
15.82 |
15.53 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
248 |
243 |
212 |
201 |
189 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
251 |
246 |
216 |
205 |
194 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.4 |
110.7 |
110.9 |
107.5 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.1 |
7.1 |
6.8 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.5 |
117.8 |
117.7 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.4 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.6 |
17.9 |
18.0 |
15.4 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
38.5 |
40.5 |
44.8 |
44.2 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
75.6 |
77.8 |
82.0 |
81.8 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
102.7 |
105.1 |
109.6 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
84 |
84 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
89 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
94 |
94 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 3 |
Week ended June 26 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
15 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
16 |
16 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.33 |
3.26 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
3.01 |
2.70 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.35 |
1.77 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.80 |
2.62 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.89 |
2.78 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
3.42 |
2.81 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
1.23 |
3.79 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.81 |
1.46 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.08 |
1.15 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
76.90 |
56.50 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
134.37 |
96.67 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
5.01 |
5.80 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
11.00 |
12.00 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
10.81 |
6.18 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |