US natgas futures dip after 16-week high on rising production
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 2% on Friday on a small increase in output after rising to a 16-week high in the prior session on forecasts for more heat and higher demand through late June.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.5 cents, or 1.6%, to $3.281 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since February 6.
That left the contract little changed for the week after it gained about 13% last week.
In the cash market, gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas rose to their highest since early February, though they were still in negative territory, as demand for the fuel rises with summer's approach and pipeline companies start to wrap up spring maintenance.
In the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, ample supplies of cheap hydropower and low demand cut next-day power prices at the Mid-Columbia hub W-MIDCP-IDX on the Washington-Oregon border to 13 cents per megawatt hour (MWh), the lowest level since May 2020.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECASTS
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states dropped to 108.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
But they noted recent output declines likely reduced the surplus of gas in inventory to around 5% above normal during the week ended June 5, down from about 6% above normal in the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 20, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 98.4 bcfd this week to 100.4 bcfd next week and 104.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from 17.1 bcfd in May to 16.4 bcfd so far in June due to ongoing spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass facility and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended Jun 5 Actual |
Week ended May 29 Actual |
Year ago Jun 5 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 5 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+94 |
+95 |
+110 |
+95 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,672 |
2,578 |
2,691 |
2,535 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.4% |
+5.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.31 |
3.34 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.62 |
16.69 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.77 |
18.82 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
8 |
8 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
188 |
188 |
138 |
138 |
138 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
196 |
196 |
158 |
158 |
157 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.8 |
109.6 |
109.0 |
105.8 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.5 |
6.7 |
6.5 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.3 |
116.3 |
115.5 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.5 |
7.1 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.1 |
16.6 |
16.8 |
13.9 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
4.5 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
34.4 |
34.6 |
36.8 |
35.3 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.3 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
73.0 |
72.7 |
74.2 |
73.8 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
100.2 |
98.4 |
100.4 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
97 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Jun 5 |
Week ended May 29 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
12 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
11 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
12 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
19 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.08 |
2.97 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.30 |
2.14 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.78 |
1.78 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.18 |
2.01 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.82 |
2.68 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.48 |
2.30 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.73 |
2.72 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-0.44 |
-0.81 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.42 |
1.29 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
56.37 |
52.96 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
76.94 |
56.32 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
0.13 |
7.59 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
20.17 |
25.40 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
4.56 |
9.54 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |