US natgas futures rise 3% as output falls and Waha prices stay negative
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on a decline in output in recent weeks.
That price increase came despite forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected and ample amounts of gas in storage.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.4 cents, or 3.0%, to $2.841 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since May 4.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 66 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 75 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative $2.29 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021 to 2025).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, the same as in April. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Output has declined in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise in the future.
Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual.
But, they noted, recent output declines coupled with higher demand from near-normal weather likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 7, down from 7% above during the week ended May 1. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 26.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 98.7 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.2 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
|
Week ended May 8 Actual |
Week ended May 1 Actual |
Year ago May 8 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 8 |
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+79 |
+63 |
+109 |
+84 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,284 |
2,205 |
2,239 |
2,150 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.2% |
+6.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.83 |
2.76 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
15.66 |
15.15 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.87 |
16.84 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
47 |
58 |
60 |
61 |
64 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
101 |
91 |
93 |
84 |
77 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
148 |
149 |
153 |
145 |
141 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.5 |
109.7 |
110.2 |
105.6 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
116.5 |
117.0 |
N/A |
107.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.8 |
7.0 |
6.9 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.0 |
16.8 |
17.5 |
15.3 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
6.5 |
5.7 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
7.3 |
6.1 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
29.1 |
30.8 |
32.8 |
32.4 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.6 |
22.1 |
21.7 |
22.2 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.9 |
72.1 |
71.8 |
71.7 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
99.4 |
98.6 |
98.8 |
N/A |
94.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A = Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
90 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Week ended May 15 |
Week ended May 8 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
13 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
11 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
35 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.75 |
2.70 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
1.86 |
1.95 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.49 |
1.46 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.88 |
1.98 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.45 |
2.36 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.00 |
2.10 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.23 |
2.17 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-3.92 |
-3.35 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.01 |
1.02 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
52.00 |
48.00 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
48.95 |
49.12 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
32.57 |
24.37 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
44.49 |
20.64 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
23.69 |
2.20 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |