US natgas futures steady as oil price drop offsets warmer outlook
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Tuesday as a bearish drop in oil prices offset bullish forecasts for warmer weather and more gas demand this week than previously expected.
Oil prices fell nearly 3% on Tuesday to a fresh three-month low as markets weighed the prospects for a resumption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz alongside weaker physical demand and scant details on a preliminary deal to end the U.S.-backed war with Iran.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.6 cent, or 0.2%, to $3.153 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Looking ahead, the premium of futures for August over July NGN26-Q26 fell to around 2 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since June 2024.
In the cash market, spot prices for Tuesday at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas turned positive for the first time since early February as demand for the fuel rises with the coming of the summer air conditioning season and as energy firms wrap up their spring pipeline maintenance.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has fallen to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. The average so far for June is higher than the figure on Wednesday.
Analysts said mild weather in recent months allowed energy firms to inject more gas than usual into storage. They projected the surplus of gas in inventory would rise to 6.1% above normal during the week ended June 12, up from about 6.0% above normal in the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through July 1, which should boost the amount of gas that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
But with the coming of slightly cooler weather next week, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 104.6 bcfd this week to 103.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slid from 17.1 bcfd in May to 17.0 bcfd so far in June due to spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass facility and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. That reading compares with a monthly LNG feedgas record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended Jun 12 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 5 Actual |
Year ago Jun 12 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 12 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+82 |
+108 |
+97 |
+73 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,768 |
2,686 |
2,788 |
2,608 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.1% |
+6.0% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.18 |
3.15 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
14.44 |
14.38 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.23 |
18.78 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
7 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
184 |
179 |
195 |
172 |
163 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
191 |
186 |
204 |
181 |
173 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.0 |
110.3 |
110.7 |
106.8 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.0 |
7.0 |
6.6 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.0 |
117.3 |
117.3 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.3 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.6 |
17.8 |
18.0 |
14.1 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
39.3 |
39.9 |
38.4 |
38.8 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.7 |
77.2 |
75.6 |
76.7 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
102.7 |
104.6 |
103.2 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
85 |
86 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
95 |
95 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Jun 19 |
Week ended June 12 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
10 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
40 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.06 |
3.06 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.24 |
2.40 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
2.24 |
1.71 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.10 |
2.30 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.66 |
2.65 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.77 |
2.90 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.55 |
2.78 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
0.42 |
-0.08 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.25 |
1.24 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
47.68 |
93.78 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
35.45 |
44.31 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
3.79 |
33.66 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
34.00 |
30.43 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
26.56 |
17.15 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |