US natgas prices hit 16-week high as hotter weather lifts demand forecast
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a fresh 16-week high on Friday on forecasts for warmer weather and more air conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.3 cents, or 2.5%, to $3.368 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since February 6 for a second day in a row.
For the week, the contract was up about 15% after sliding about 2% last week.
For the month, it was up about 20% after falling about 4% in April.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Looking forward, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 13, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. generation comes from gas-fired power plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 100.3 bcfd this week to 99.0 bcfd next week before rising to 101.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
LNG FEEDGAS DOWN
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.1 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
In other LNG news, there is now only one vessel going directly from the U.S. to China, the Al Sene, which left Venture Global's VG.N Plaquemines plant in Louisiana in mid-May and is expected to reach China in late June. That is down from as many as five vessels over the past week or so.
No LNG tanker has left a U.S. export plant and gone directly to China during U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, which started in January 2025, due primarily to trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies.
China, which imported lots of U.S. gas in the past and has many contracts to buy U.S. LNG, is the world's biggest gas importer, while the U.S. is the world's biggest gas producer, consumer and exporter. Chinese companies have sold the U.S. LNG they buy in other countries.
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Week ended May 29 Forecast |
Week ended May 22 Actual |
Year ago May 29 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 29 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+100 |
+92 |
+119 |
+101 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,583 |
2,483 |
2,581 |
2,440 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.9% |
+6.2% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.34 |
3.29 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.04 |
16.01 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.34 |
18.24 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
16 |
19 |
33 |
30 |
29 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
147 |
138 |
113 |
120 |
119 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
163 |
157 |
146 |
150 |
148 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.6 |
109.7 |
109.4 |
106.0 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.1 |
116.3 |
115.7 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.6 |
7.7 |
7.5 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.7 |
17.1 |
17.2 |
14.9 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
5.1 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
32.6 |
34.5 |
34.1 |
32.3 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.8 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.3 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.2 |
73.0 |
72.0 |
71.4 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
99.1 |
100.3 |
99.0 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
97 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 29 |
Week ended May 22 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
9 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
39 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
15 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.04 |
3.13 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.00 |
2.18 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.71 |
1.71 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.97 |
2.15 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.44 |
2.61 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.05 |
2.35 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.37 |
2.49 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-1.04 |
-0.46 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.31 |
1.27 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
42.42 |
42.56 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
37.11 |
45.55 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
3.27 |
3.27 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
7.50 |
7.50 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
2.25 |
2.25 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |