By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Friday on forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected, including the increase in feedgas at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas after shutting earlier in the week.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.3 cents, or 0.8%, to $2.881 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest since May 12.

For the week, the front-month was on track to drop for a fourth week in a row for the first time since February, falling about 2% so far this week.

In a sign the market is not too worried about gas supplies in coming months, the premium of futures for March over April 2027 NGH27-J27 fell to a record low of around 17 cents per mmBtu.

The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006.

Traders use the March-April NGH27-J27 and October-November NGV26-X26 spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July from 110.0 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, analysts projected the amount of gas in storage likely rose to 6.5% above normal during the week ended July 17, up from 6.4% during the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 1, forcing power generators to keep burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 111.5 bcfd for the next few weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

LNG EXPORTS

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants held at 17.4 bcfd so far in July, the same as in June, remaining below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.

Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the U.S. war with Iran in 2026.

Around the world, gas was trading at a 17-week high near $19 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and at a 14-week high near $20 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Jul 17 Forecast	Week ended Jul 10 Actual	Year ago Jul 17	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 17
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+35	+41	+27	+30
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,059	3,024	3,072	2,873
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.5%	+6.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.87	2.86	3.30	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	19.01	18.38	9.98	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	19.93	19.93	12.53	12.24	18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	3	3	3	3	3
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	237	239	219	213	203
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	240	242	222	216	206
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.7	110.8	110.2	107.6	101.4
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.5	7.9	7.2	N/A	8.2
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	117.2	118.8	117.4	N/A	109.6
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.3	2.3	2.3	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.1	7.0	7.2	N/A	6.6
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	17.8	17.0	17.5	16.0	11.0
U.S. Commercial	4.3	4.3	4.4	4.4	4.7
U.S. Residential	3.8	3.5	3.6	3.6	3.6
U.S. Power Plant	46.1	47.9	47.2	47.7	46.1
U.S. Industrial	21.6	21.6	21.6	22.2	21.8
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.5	5.4	5.5	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.2	3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	83.5	85.3	84.5	85.7	84.9
Total U.S. Demand	110.7	111.5	111.5	N/A	104.8
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	83	83	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	90	90	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	93	93	80	77	76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended July 17	Week ended July 10	2025	2024	2023
Wind	6	7	11	11	10
Solar	8	9	6	5	4
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	43	40	42	41
Coal	19	19	18	16	17
Nuclear	17	17	18	19	19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.83	2.80	3.20	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.30	2.47	2.87	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.64	2.55	3.45	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.23	2.27	2.61	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.65	2.66	2.95	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.45	2.71	4.50	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.35	3.45	3.70	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.89	1.78	1.57	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.22	1.26	0.51	1.13	2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	51.79	72.66	89.06	77.12	61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	99.94	338.79	87.25	60.23	54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX	40.76	43.61	52.17	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	35.14	46.50	48.82	34.82	59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX	32.60	38.60	33.95	28.44	53.02