US natural gas futures climb 3% to seven-week high as output drops
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed along with oil prices, gaining about 3% to a seven-week high on Friday on a drop in output that was expected to reduce the current gas storage surplus.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.3 cents, or 2.5%, to $2.967 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
That put the contract on track for its highest close since March 27 and pushed it into technically overbought territory for the first time since early May.
For the week, the front-month was up about 7% after easing about 1% last week.
Looking forward, the futures strip for the front-year (currently 2027) NGYstc1 fell to $3.48 per mmBtu, its lowest since December 2024.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.5 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 14-week low of 107.6 bcfd on Friday due mostly to declines in Arkansas and Louisiana. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage. But, they noted output declines coupled with near-normal weather and higher demand in recent weeks likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 15, down from 7% above normal during the week ended May 8. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 30.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.0 bcfd this week to 98.5 bcfd next week before rising back to 99.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.1 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including Exxon Mobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
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Week ended May 15 Forecast |
Week ended May 8 Actual |
Year ago May 15 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 15 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+85 |
+85 |
+119 |
+92 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,375 |
2,290 |
2,358 |
2,242 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.9% |
+6.5% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.92 |
2.89 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.58 |
16.28 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
17.07 |
17.02 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
36 |
35 |
60 |
61 |
55 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
113 |
112 |
93 |
84 |
85 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
149 |
147 |
153 |
145 |
140 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.5 |
109.1 |
108.7 |
105.6 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
115.9 |
115.2 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.8 |
7.4 |
7.1 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.0 |
16.7 |
17.0 |
15.3 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
6.5 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
7.3 |
6.1 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
29.1 |
30.9 |
32.4 |
32.4 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.6 |
22.1 |
21.8 |
22.2 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.9 |
72.2 |
71.5 |
71.7 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
99.4 |
99.0 |
98.5 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 15 |
Week ended May 8 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
13 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
11 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
36 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
19 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.79 |
2.88 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.05 |
2.17 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.47 |
1.59 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.04 |
2.07 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.32 |
2.50 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.27 |
2.32 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.18 |
2.30 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-3.58 |
-2.39 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.05 |
1.12 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
44.98 |
44.67 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
41.66 |
46.57 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
2.46 |
2.72 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
9.88 |
12.72 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
-2.38 |
1.01 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |