US natural gas futures rise as output drops, demand set to climb
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Friday due to a decline in output in recent weeks and forecasts for warmer weather and higher demand in late May that could prompt some homes and businesses to crank up air conditioners early.
U.S. gas demand rises with increased power use for air conditioning since about 40% of U.S. electric generation comes from gas-fired power plants.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.8%, to $2.79 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
For the week, the contract was up less than 1% after gaining about 10% last week.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.0 bcfd over the last four days to a preliminary one-week low of 108.1 bcfd on Friday due in part to production reductions by some energy firms, like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, because of low spot gas prices in recent months. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual. But, they noted, recent output declines coupled with near normal weather and higher demand likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 7, down from 7% above during the week ended May 1. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 23 with cooling demand starting to overtake heating demand.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 99.3 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week before rising to 99.6 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.2 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April.
|
Week ended May 8 Actual |
Week ended May 1 Actual |
Year ago May 8 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 8 |
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+79 |
+63 |
+109 |
+84 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,284 |
2,205 |
2,239 |
2,150 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.2% |
+6.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.82 |
2.77 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
15.31 |
14.72 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.84 |
16.85 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
58 |
62 |
55 |
81 |
71 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
91 |
88 |
71 |
69 |
71 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
149 |
150 |
126 |
150 |
142 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
108.2 |
109.5 |
109.5 |
105.1 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.0 |
115.9 |
116.3 |
N/A |
107.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.2 |
17.0 |
17.2 |
14.7 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
6.7 |
6.4 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
7.9 |
7.2 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
31.7 |
29.1 |
30.1 |
31.2 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.4 |
22.6 |
22.2 |
22.7 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.2 |
72.9 |
71.5 |
73.8 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
103.1 |
99.3 |
98.3 |
N/A |
94.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A = Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Week ended May 8 |
Week ended May 1 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
13 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
10 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
35 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.70 |
2.75 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
1.95 |
2.10 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.46 |
1.52 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.98 |
1.98 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.36 |
2.49 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.10 |
2.19 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.17 |
2.33 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-3.35 |
-3.84 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.02 |
1.25 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
48.00 |
60.56 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
49.12 |
63.81 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
24.37 |
22.53 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
20.64 |
18.00 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
2.20 |
4.52 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |