US STOCKS-Wall St set for subdued open ahead of Fed decision

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Futures: Dow up 0.18%, S&P flat, Nasdaq down 0.06%

Investors focus on first Fed meet under Warsh

Qualcomm shares gain after report of talks to buy Tenstorrent

Updates before market opens

By Sruthi Shankar and Twesha Dikshit

- U.S. stocks were set for a subdued open on Tuesday as investors were cautious ahead of the first interest rate decision under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Gains in some technology stocks helped limit early losses. Shares of SpaceX SPCX.O climbed almost 5%, putting the company on the verge of overtaking Amazon's market value AMZN.O to become the world's fifth-most valuable firm.

The Elon Musk-led company said it would acquire software firm Anysphere for $60 billion in a bid to ramp up its presence in the enterprise AI market.

Memory chip stocks rose, with Western Digital WDC.O and Seagate Technology STX.O adding 5.7% and 4.3%, respectively.

The blue-chip Dow .DJI closed at a record high on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the U.S. and Iran, sending oil prices sharply lower and easing concerns about inflation.

Still, doubts swirled around the deal as shippers said it could take weeks for confidence to return after any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates at the 3.50-3.75% range at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday, with investors closely watching Warsh's comments on inflation, unemployment and the economic outlook, potentially market-moving words of the world's most important central banker.

"All eyes are on Warsh's press conference, guidance and expectations for the market. But given the (U.S.-Iran) deal seems to be inked he has a little bit more latitude to be balanced," said Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital.

"Historically, the market gets tested with a new Fed chair in the first year or so. There's usually some market volatility."

Inflation, in particular, seems stuck more than a percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, and Warsh's characterization of whether and when it is likely to fall will be a key first step in the evolution of monetary policy under his leadership.

Traders see a 42% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, as per CME Group's FedWatch tool, with rate cuts seen coming only after mid-2027.

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high earlier on Tuesday, as it focused on taming price pressures from the energy shock caused by the Iran war.

At 8:36 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-minis EScv1 were down 1.75 points, or 0.02%. Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcv1 slipped 18 points, or 0.06%, and Dow e-minis YMcv1 inched up 95 points, or 0.18%.

The benchmark S&P 500 .SPX was also closing in on early June record highs after a slump driven by concerns about high valuations in the technology sector and the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Qualcomm QCOM.O rose 3.2% after the Information reported that the chipmaker was in talks to acquire AI chip startup Tenstorrent for $8 billion to $10 billion.

Shares of Olin OLN.N climbed 5.8% after the chemical producer said it would acquire Huntsman HUN.N in an all-stock deal valued at about $2.43 billion. Huntsman shares fell 5.7% as the offer stood at a discount to the stock's last price.

Robinhood HOOD.O was up 1.6% as the trading platform said it would cut 10% of its full-time workforce and close remaining open roles.