Investors in Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.4% to close at US$7.59 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues of US$196m beat expectations by a respectable 5.9%, although statutory losses per share increased. Genius Sports lost US$0.28, which was 291% more than what the analysts had included in their models. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Genius Sports after the latest results.

After the latest results, the 18 analysts covering Genius Sports are now predicting revenues of US$1.02b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a huge 29% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 51% to US$0.33. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.00b and losses of US$0.039 per share in 2026. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 7.6% to 10.15, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Genius Sports at US$18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Genius Sports' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 65% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 23% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Genius Sports is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Genius Sports. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Genius Sports. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Genius Sports going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Genius Sports , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.