Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues came in at US$37m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$0.05 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on BigBear.ai Holdings after the latest results.

After the latest results, the twin analysts covering BigBear.ai Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$145.3m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 51% to US$0.27 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$143.5m and US$0.25 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.

The consensus price target fell 20% to US$4.00per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that BigBear.ai Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 22% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.5% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 14% annually. So it looks like BigBear.ai Holdings is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at BigBear.ai Holdings. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of BigBear.ai Holdings' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for BigBear.ai Holdings going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that BigBear.ai Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.