Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NRGV) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$22m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.20 some 38% larger than what the analysts had predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Energy Vault Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of US$252.9m in 2026. This reflects a solid 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 24% to US$0.51. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$257.4m and losses of US$0.46 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Energy Vault Holdings even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a noticeable increase in per-share losses.

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 20% to 4.18333, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Energy Vault Holdings analyst has a price target of US$7.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 23% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 27% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that Energy Vault Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Energy Vault Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.