A week ago, Codexis, Inc. (NASDAQ:CDXS) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 5.0% better than analyst forecasts at US$15m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.10 per share, were 5.0% smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from seven analysts covering Codexis is for revenues of US$74.2m in 2026. This implies a noticeable 5.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are supposed to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$0.41. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$74.2m and US$0.44 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The consensus price target fell 7.1% to US$6.58despite the forecast for smaller losses next year. It looks like the ongoing lack of profitability is starting to weigh on valuations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Codexis at US$11.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.50. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2026 compared to the historical decline of 13% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.5% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Codexis is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Codexis' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Codexis. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Codexis analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Codexis , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.