As you might know, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (NYSE:EGY) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Unfortunately, VAALCO Energy delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$63m were 20% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 543% to US$0.90 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from VAALCO Energy's four analysts is for revenues of US$414.6m in 2026. This reflects a huge 33% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. VAALCO Energy is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.087 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$416.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.32 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 8.3% to US$9.53, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic VAALCO Energy analyst has a price target of US$10.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.80. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that VAALCO Energy is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting VAALCO Energy's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 46% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 18% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that VAALCO Energy is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple VAALCO Energy analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.