Velo3D stock jumped about 10% to US$15.10 after earnings, a sharp move for a company that has been volatile over the past quarter. Short term traders are reacting to a quarter where revenue reached US$20.7 million and gross margin moved into positive territory at 21.5% for this metal 3D printing player.

The bigger story for long term investors sits in the guidance. Management now projects full year 2026 revenue of US$65 million to US$75 million and is targeting positive earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization in the second half. The rest of the numbers fill in how credible that shift looks.

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Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): US$20.7 million compared with US$13.6 million (up 52%).
• Net Loss (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): US$11.5 million loss compared with a US$13.8 million loss (loss narrowed).
• Basic EPS (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): Loss per share compared with a loss of US$0.98 per share (loss per share narrowed).
• Gross Margin (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): 21.5% compared with an 11.7% decline (moved from negative to positive margin).

If you prefer clean charts instead of dense earnings tables and ratios, you can see Velo3D’s full financial picture, including a clear view of its path toward profitability, in the company report for Velo3D.

Evaluating Velo3D’s Recurring Revenue Pivot

Bullish investors argue that Velo3D is turning into a higher quality, recurring revenue platform built around rapid production solutions and software rather than one time hardware sales. The latest quarter provides some concrete milestones toward that idea. Revenue reached US$20.7 million, with management attributing the move to higher average selling prices and increased RPS contribution. RPS revenue grew at a double digit rate and is expected to represent roughly 25% to 30% of revenue exiting 2026, which would be about double last year’s mix.

The margin story is also tracking the thesis. Gross margin shifted from a decline of 11.7% a year ago to a positive 21.5%. Management now describes a path to above 30% in the second half, as RPS scales and systems move to build to order. That mix shift and margin progress are key proof points for the bullish recurring platform narrative.

Compare Velo3D’s internal targets on margin expansion and recurring revenue with what the street is actually pricing in. See the consensus price target analysis for Velo3D to check whether analysts think this earnings progress supports the current move in the stock.

Bear Case On Velo3D’s Profit Path Faces Mixed Test

The key bearish claim on Velo3D is that long qualification cycles, lumpy defense and space programs, and heavy fixed costs will keep the company subscale, loss making and reliant on fresh capital. The latest quarter pushes back on some of that, but does not clear the bar. Revenue of US$20.7 million and a 21.5% gross margin show better utilization and pricing, yet the company still reported an US$11.5 million net loss and adjusted EBITDA of negative US$8.1 million. That leaves the execution risk on EBITDA improvement very much alive.

Bears also worry that growth depends on external funding. Management ended Q2 with US$91.1 million in cash, helped by roughly US$109.4 million of recent equity raises. That supports the current ramp, but it also validates concerns that scaling RPS and the Livermore build out require ongoing access to capital, with future dilution still a live risk if targets are missed.

After heavy dilution and ongoing losses, are these financing moves just the start of deeper structural issues? Review the risk analysis for Velo3D which shows 3 important warning signs.

Stay Ahead Of Your Next Move

If Velo3D’s shift toward recurring revenue and improving gross margin has your attention, register for free with Simply Wall St and add it to a Watchlist to track the share price against fair value and watch for a setup that fits your plan. Once you take a position, use the Portfolio Command Center to cut through noise and focus on the key updates that matter to your returns. For a broader view on what other investors are seeing in Velo3D and similar stocks, tap into the Community to surface different angles and questions you may not have considered. By spotting potential catalysts and risks early, you give yourself more information to act with confidence and stay ahead of the market.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.