Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is drawing attention after confirming progress on VK2735, its lead obesity drug, with phase 3 trials underway and key phase 1 maintenance data expected in Q3 2026 that could affect investor sentiment.

Over the past year, Viking Therapeutics has combined periods of strong enthusiasm with recent consolidation. The 1 year total shareholder return of 22.77% and a 3 year total shareholder return of 145.18% contrast with a year to date share price return that is down 4.40% as investors weigh the progress and risks around VK2735 and the broader pipeline.

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The recent pullback in Viking Therapeutics after a strong multi year run raises a simple question. Is this mostly about cooler sentiment around obesity drug catalysts, or does it better reflect where the business now sits on valuation?

Most Popular Narrative: 63.5% Undervalued

Against the last close at $33.86, the most followed narrative for Viking Therapeutics points to a fair value of $92.72, with analysts anchoring that view on VK2735’s long term obesity opportunity and broader cardiometabolic pipeline.

Advancement of VK2735 into large, late stage obesity trials, with both VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2 designed around weight loss endpoints, positions the company to address growing medical demand for obesity treatments, which could be a key driver of future revenue once the program moves beyond current net losses.

Curious what is sitting behind a fair value almost three times the current price? The narrative focuses on potential future obesity revenues, rising margins and a rich profit multiple that assumes Viking Therapeutics moves from today’s losses to operating as a much larger business.

Result: Fair Value of $92.72 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Viking Therapeutics still carries meaningful risk, with no current revenue and sizeable recent R&D and net losses that could require future dilution if trials disappoint.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Flags Overvaluation

While the most popular Viking Therapeutics narrative points to a fair value of $92.72, the Simply Wall St DCF model paints a very different picture. On that approach, Viking Therapeutics at $33.86 is trading above an estimated future cash flow value of $7.94, which implies overvaluation. That gap raises a clear question for investors: Which set of assumptions feels more realistic for a clinical stage company with no current revenue?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Viking Therapeutics for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 46 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Does the mix of bullish narratives and cautious valuation work for you, or not quite yet? Take a closer look at Viking Therapeutics now and weigh the 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Viking Therapeutics?

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• Target potential mispricings by reviewing companies on the 46 high quality undervalued stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.