Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is back in focus after launching a Phase 1 trial for VK3019, a dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist for weight loss, while it advances its late stage obesity candidate VK2735.

Viking Therapeutics' recent VK3019 trial news lands after a strong run in the stock, with a 30 day share price return of 36.06% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 40.71%. The 3 year total shareholder return of 142.24% and very large 5 year total shareholder return suggest momentum has been building over a longer horizon.

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After Viking Therapeutics' sharp recent move and a market value around US$4.35b, investors are weighing it as a fresh obesity opportunity versus a story that already prices in much of the excitement. How does the current valuation stack up?

Most Popular Narrative: 58.3% Undervalued

On the most followed valuation narrative, Viking Therapeutics' fair value of $92.72 sits well above the last close at $38.71, which helps explain why recent obesity trial progress is drawing such close attention.

Parallel development of subcutaneous and oral formulations of the same GLP 1 and GIP co agonist, including plans to start Phase III oral trials and an oral maintenance strategy, directly responds to rising patient interest in flexible obesity treatment options and could support broader market reach and future earnings growth.

Want to see what sits behind that bullish setup for Viking Therapeutics? The narrative leans on future revenue, margin uplift and a premium earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really carry the valuation, and how far they stretch current loss making financials? The full story joins those pieces together.

Result: Fair Value of $92.72 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the bullish Viking Therapeutics narrative still hinges on successful VK2735 trials and careful cash use, with trial setbacks or heavier dilution as potential swing factors.

Another View on Viking Therapeutics' Valuation

The SWS DCF model paints a very different picture for Viking Therapeutics. On this approach, the stock price of $38.71 sits above an estimated future cash flow value of $14.06, which points to an overvalued result rather than the earlier undervalued fair value of $92.72. It leaves a simple question: which narrative do you think fits the cash flows better?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Viking Therapeutics for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 41 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this mixed picture on Viking Therapeutics leaves you undecided, take time to review the data in detail and compare it with the 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.