VSE Corporation (NASDAQ:VSEC) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 5.0% to hit US$325m. VSE also reported a statutory profit of US$1.04, which was an impressive 27% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, VSE's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.77b in 2026. This would be a huge 50% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 73% to US$4.23. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.33 in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on VSE after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$253, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on VSE, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$270 and the most bearish at US$230 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that VSE's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 72% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect VSE to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for VSE. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple VSE analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.